Why Trump dared to downplay covid-19 and how his calculation went awry
Trump has difficulty to truly understand the power of exponential growth of covid-19 transmission, thus to fully comprehend its danger even though he had all the severity data. The over-estimate of his IQ misled by his “Stable Genius” lie deterred his aides to enlighten him. These led him to overlook it, so the choice to downplay it, and the high casualty paid by American people.
Trump recording recently disclosed by Woodward shows Trump knew covid-19 is both a lot more deadly and contagious than flu, and he played it down intentionally. This substantiated my previous article that predicted ☞Trump is either stupid or played it down deliberately.
When reporter asked: “Why did you lie to American people?” Trump, instead of apologizing for his lying and the nightmare consequence of his actions, he shook his head and refuted: “Such a terrible question, and the phraseology. I didn’t lie. We have to be calm, we cant panic.”
According to Trump, a lie is not a lie if it is told out of a supposedly good will, do you agree with that?
What about his stated reason to downplay it? Not plausible and certainly wrong. Then what made him to choose the wrong path? My theory is, “no wisdom, no fear”. He does not understand the key concept “exponential growth” and its dangerous power.
Trump lives in a linear world where output is proportionally to input. It’s difficult for him to understand the “exponential” feature of pandemic transmission, to explain it to him, maybe this can work,
“Sir, you said you would kill 1000 Iranians if they kill 1 American, 2000 if they kill 2 , however, this Kungflu is such that it will punish US, 1000 times if you downplay it by 1 account, 1000000 times for 2 accounts.”
I guess that might have enlightened him and saved America.
I am going to explain the “exponential” thing a little bit more academically. I am not an epidemiologist and have never claimed to be a Stable Genius, it is all figured out by me with simple reasoning and common sense knowledge. So it should not be too difficult. Here is an infection case# vs time curve for covid-19 that I drew,
The straight line from origin to B is the curve of infection cases vs time passed since 1st case, this is the epidemiology curve (denoted as E-curve from here on) if it is left complete free to transmit. Since it is plotted in logarithmic scale, so it appears as a straight line. It doubles per period T, the range of which is 3 - 4 days for various countries. In the case of US, it’s 3 days, so 10 T= 1 month, 20 T= 2 month, …
For all countries, the initial part of the observed E-curve is like this, i.e. a straight line, with some variance of T. This is due to that the disease transmits freely during initial phase until the countries implemented social distance and mask policy to various degree, which bends the curve down from the straight line.
For anyone who is intellectually less capable, it is tough to grasp a graph like this. Once seeing this graph, most people except the dumbest can see this is so dangerous and one should never play down this pandemic. Knowing the severity data like the high death rate and high contagion rate won’t be enough for one to fully comprehend the danger and thus not to downplay it. In another words, he is dumb and he can’t have a big picture like this and thus comprehend the real danger of it. Trump is a “no wisdom, no fear” maniac.
To aggravate the problem is his lie of being stable genius. Many his aides with good IQ (e.g. Fauci ) would have tried a lot harder to help him understand this exponential thing if not cheated by his IQ lie and thus over-estimated him. Because of this lie, nobody would try that, so everything has to be hinged on him alone.
Please keep away this graph from Trump, if he knew it, he will complain: “See, I knew the Chinese were withholding key information from us, this must be it!” And he could even start a war.
I am going to dive into Trump’s mind a little deeper. I guess Trump’s calculation must be this:
“I will lose some lives, many of them are losers and suckers and won’t support me any way, not too much of them and not a big deal, and in return, I will get better economic performance, and for the lives lost, I can just blame China, Wow, How smart I am, that’s one stone three birds!”
Check this and you can see the Trump administration indeed has been accusing China systematically and strenuously:
The explosive recording clearly showed the Trump, Pence, Pompeo, Navarro etc., they all have the full severity information about covid-19 as early as early Feb, and actually I too had these info since it’s all public by China and WHO. However, from what I remember, they all have accused China repeatedly with things like, China understated its data, China’s misleading information has put us behind the curve, bla bla bla… So the truth is, they downplayed covid19 deliberately while blaming China for misleading them into not handling it properly. Btw, at the time of this writing, all these accusations have largely disappeared from google result mystically.
In summary, Trump, the master of art of deal, made American people to suffer loss of lives exponentially because 1. he lied about his intelligence so nobody will try to help him out, 2. he is too stupid to understand the exponential nature of disease transmissions, 3. his disregard for the lives of people.
It just so happened that understanding the exponential nature of epidemic transmissions seems exponentially difficult for both Trump and his goons. There is another fiasco, a Harvard epidemiologist Brownstein published a paper, employing some dazzling advanced technique, and reached a conclusion that covid-19 outbreak in China could be as early as Aug 1 2019. Since China started the lock-down from Jan 23 2020, so there are 170 days for the virus to transmit freely, we know T for China is ~3.7, so there are 46 T for the cases # to double, that will drive China to the B point in the above graph, so if Brownstein’s study were correct, more than a trillion people would have been infected, 31 billion would have died in China. Clearly this garbage study can not be correct, and this Harvard epidemiologist is a joke who has no idea of E-curve! With the promotion of Trump, Fox News, ABC News and many others, a global smear campaign on China based on this garbage paper was launched, Lewandorsky, a Trump campaign manager and Trump goon, proclaimed:
“the people of China have not only been dishonest with the people of United State, but also the people of the world, we need to make sure they are held accountable for that. Either they lied to the world health organization, or WHO did not do their due-diligence when they said the virus could not be spread from person to person contact….”
So, how do you think of Trump? A liar, a moron, and an evil all at the same time?
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